How to FULLY Hedge And Win With the USPS Contract And Workhorse Ford etc.

Romeo Power Technology is a high volume battery maker who is focused on the commercial vehicle market and is going public thru a spac merger with $RMG In their Investor Presentation for the merger they say the the USPS is electrifying most of their 200k vehicle fleet on page 20 They list Workhorse as a customer on page 13 The have the Workhorse Zero Emission Electric Mail Truck pictured on pages 11, 28, and 30 On page 7 they say the have $2.4 billion in contracts under negotiation. When contacted for more information they said that what is in the presentation is all that they are ALLOWED to say. Does that sound like the NDA about the NGDV contract might be in force ?… how’s that?

also had a very interesting conversation with the president of TPIC……

workhorse is TPIC only auto body customer. in Q2 earnings call they said they continue to make C-1000 bodies for WKHS and were also making an unnamed passenger BEV.

That is all they could say. has to be due to NDA for the mail truck.

If they got a new customer.. that would be huge.. if they were making a second vehicle for their one and only customer that they were allowed to talk about.. they would have.. double the business!!! but all they could say was also making an unnamed passenger bev


You have to start with the Q4 2019 ER, then read Q1 2020 You find out that Workhorse is their ONLY production auto body customer. In Q1 they refer to the C-1000 as a passenger BEV. If they had added a second customer and doubled their customer base they would have been shouting that from the rooftops… so you have to figure it was for workhorse.

If they were building a second model that they could talk about for their one and only auto body customer, they would have been talking about doubling their business.. again .. would have been something to brag about and a big deal.

But all they could say was we are also building an unnamed passenger BEV. not for who. Had to be because of the NDA.

Think about it. Workhorse bought the molds for the mail truck body from VT Hackney in Dec. 2019 when they signed with TPIC. TPIC had to verify that they could use those molds to make the mail truck bodies at least.

well I had a conversation with the president of TPIC. I asked him if volume production would be done only on tpic property or on customer premises. He said if a customer needed on site that they would do that.

I asked if they were setting up volume production on any customer sites and his answer was …and I quote. “I can’t answer that question”

well I had a conversation with the president of TPIC. I asked him if volume production would be done only on tpic property or on customer premises. He said if a customer needed on site that they would do that.

I asked if they were setting up volume production on any customer sites and his answer was …and I quote. “I can’t answer that question”

Those were His exact words. Workhorse is their only production body customer and there is an NDA that I think prevented him from being able to answer


Corporate Profile

TPI Composites, Inc. (TPI) is the only independent manufacturer of composite wind blades for the wind energy market with a global manufacturing footprint and accounted for approximately 18% of all sold onshore wind blades on a MW-basis globally in 2019. TPI delivers high-quality, cost-effective composite solutions through long term relationships with leading OEMs in the wind and transportation markets. TPI is headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona and operates factories throughout the U.S., China, Mexico, Turkey, and India. TPI operates additional engineering development centers in Denmark and Germany.

| October 2020Capitalizing on the Decarbonization of Electric Sector and Electrification of the Vehicle Fleet• Renewables and wind energy are mainstream, large, growing, competitive and desired by customers. • Emerging markets around the world are growing faster than mature markets.• Blades are being outsourced to access emerging growth markets, drive cost and efficiently utilize capital.• Electric vehicles sales are expected to grow 20%+ CAGR through 2040 according to BNEF. Only Independent Blade Manufacturer with a Global Footprint• Our factories are low cost, world class hubs that serve large, diverse and growing addressable markets, reducing the effect of individual market fluctuations.Advanced Composite Technology and Production Expertise Provide Barrier to Entry• TPI holds important IP that is difficult to replicate (materials, process, tooling, inspection and DFM).• >300 engineers and technicians and growing.• 60-75+ meter blades, larger than 787 wingspan, with tolerances measured in millimeters.Collaborative Dedicated Supplier Model to Share Gain and Drive Down LCOE• Our business model helps TPI customers to gain market share in a cost effective and capital efficient manner by sharing the investment, spreading overhead, driving down material cost, improving productivity and sharing a large portion of that benefit with our customers. Long-Term Supply Agreements Provide Significant Revenue Visibility• Volume based pricing and shared investment motivate both parties to keep plants full.• Shared gain/pain protects our margins.Compelling Return on Invested Capital• Shared capital investment results in a “capital-light” model for TPI and our customers.Seasoned Management Team with Significant Global Growth Experience• TPI has become a destination for top talent. • Pleased with the exceptional leaders and managers that have joined the TPI team.

We also leverage our advanced composite technology and history of innovation to supply high strength, lightweight and durable compositeproducts to the transportation market. In November 2017, we signed a five- year supply agreement with Proterra Inc. (Proterra) to supply ProterraCatalyst® composite bus bodies. In February 2018, we entered into an agreement with Navistar, Inc. (Navistar) to design and develop an all compositeClass 8 tractor cab. This collaborative development project was entered into in connection with Navistar’s recent award under the Department ofEnergy’s (DOE) Super Truck II investment program, which is designed to promote fuel efficiency in commercial vehicles. In 2019, we also agreed todevelop prototype composite body delivery vehicles for Workhorse Group. In November 2018, we announced a capital investment of approximately $11.5million in 2019 to develop a highly automated pilot manufacturing line for the electric vehicle market within our Warren, Rhode Island facility, and we planto commence operating this pilot line later this year. We expect this investment will enable us to further develop our technology, create defensible productand process IP and demonstrate our capability to manufacture composite components cost effectively at automotive volume rates. We also expect thispilot line will also help our current and potential customers to de-risk the decision-making process to commit to TPI for high-volume manufacturingprograms in the future.

This motley fool article is pretty good too

A hidden leader in the wind industry

The wind turbine industry is dominated by General Electric (NYSE:GE), Siemens Gamesa, and Vestas Wind Systems (OTC:VWDRY), and privately held Goldwind. Of these, Vestas has the largest global market share, with 15% of wind turbine sales in 2019.

Yet all of these companies (with the exception of Goldwind) along with many smaller wind turbine companies, rely heavily on TPI Composites to make their turbines spin. TPI is the largest manufacturer of wind turbine blades in the world, with some 18% of the global market share for onshore wind turbine blades. 

According to a recent presentation, TPI Composite customers have 52% of the global market share in onshore turbines, and 99% of market share in the U.S. This puts the company in a wonderful position. 

Why TPI is so important to wind turbine manufacturers

Why do these companies use TPI Composites as a manufacturing partner? Two reasons. First, despite the big growth in renewable energy, demand for wind turbines is notoriously cyclical, and can rise and fall sharply from one year to the next based on demand for utility-scale project development. This makes it more challenging for companies to both meet peak demand, and keep costs low during cyclical downturns. Working with TPI helps wind turbine makers do both. 

Second, turbine blades are absolutely enormous, and can be longer than the wingspan of the largest commercial airlines. It’s not cost-effective to ship over large distances, and even the companies with the most market share may not have enough volume in certain geographies to justify blade manufacturing operations.

TPIC Revenue (TTM) Chart

TPIC Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts

This is where TPI comes in. Since it partners with many wind turbine companies, it can build a blade manufacturing plant that serves multiple customers. This is a huge strategic advantage that will continue to add value around the world, as pockets of opportunity develop for the wind industry. 

TPI’s future is more than just wind 

Renewable energy is about more than just the power grid, and TPI is positioned to be a leader in another industry that’s historically relied heavily on contract manufacturers: transportation. The company has agreements with some of the biggest names in clean transportation, including bus and commercial vehicle leaders Proterra and Workhorse, heavy truck giant Navistar, and global automaker General Motors

As a leader in manufacturing the lighter, stronger materials it takes to continue pushing the limits on wind turbines, vehicle manufacturers are turning to TPI to develop and manufacture composite frames, bodies, and components for their zero-emission vehicles. 

Why TPI is worth buying now

On one hand, with its share price near the all-time high, investors might be a bit skittish about buying TPI Composites right now. I get it, particularly with its financial results deteriorating this year. TPI has reported a $72 million loss over the prior 12 months. It takes more than just being a business that makes the world a little better to be a worthy investment. Investors want to make money, too. 

Looking at the longer-term trend, I expect TPI will return to profitability relatively soon; it’s the only independent turbine blade manufacturer with a global footprint, and turbine makers are relying more heavily on contract manufacturers now than ever. Between TPI’s technical capabilities and geographical scale that creates very high barriers to competitive entry, the company has a number of durable competitive advantages. 

Moreover, cash flows are stronger than you might expect. TPI generated $32 million in operating cash over the past year, and its $47 million in negative free cash was the product of a record level of capital investments over the past year. TPI is spending on growing its capacity and capabilities, and that should result in a bigger, more profitable business in the future. 

Trading for about 0.7 times sales, TPI is actually still a little bit cheaper than its average since going public. Once those new assets it’s been spending to build start generating more cash flows, today’s price could end up looking cheap in a few years. 

TPI Composites 35Million Shares ( pretty Low Floater )

Ford Hedge/Supplement For Workhorse

And SBE ChargePoint Electric Vehicle Charging

OshKosh Denfense Is Helping Ford Make the Hybrid USPS Vehicles


One thought on “How to FULLY Hedge And Win With the USPS Contract And Workhorse Ford etc.”

  1. The USPS paid 6 teams Millions of dollars for prototypes in 2016 and has spent years doing evaluation and durability testing on those prototypes and what they buy will be chosen from those that were submitted. What the ford/oshkosh team bid was an old fashion carbon spewing 100 year old technology internal combustion engine gas guzzler. Not a Hybrid. 1906 tech.

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